Long-Term Weather Forecasts Favor Bullish Grain Market


As we welcome in the first week of June we have an OPEC meeting, Unemployment number on Friday and the Fed meeting on Flag Day and the decision on whether to raise Interest Rates on the 15th. Which will make the markets trade volatile with all these different policies and government reports on tap the coming days and weeks.

On the corn front the grains have seemed to have crumbled. The South American Farmer soybeans squeeze seems to be in the rearview mirror. The weather should be the last thing breaking this market to the downside after all the bullish news driving prices higher. In this market expect the unexpected and remember key support in the corn is $4. In the overnight electronic session the July Corn is currently trading at 402 ¾ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 405 to 401 ½ so far. Long term weather forecasts favor a bullish Grain market this summer.

On the ethanol front the July contract posted a trade at 1.619 which is .007 of a cent lower. This market is following the price movements in corn and energy prices.

On the crude oil front the market is edgy with the upcoming OPEC meeting which I expect to be a non-event as usual more talk and no substance to agreeing to production quotas. Later today we have the weekly API data which was delayed one day due to the Memorial Day Holiday and this should be an interesting number with the Canadian wild fires disrupting the flow of oil the past few weeks and the geo-political events that also caused shortfalls. Now we have floods in Houston that could even cast a further pall on movement of oil to gas at the pump. Smart money would be buying any dips in this market or just plain buying value. In the overnight electronic session the July contract is currently trading at 4847 which is 63 points lower. The trading range has been 4909 to 4823 so far. This market is destined for a bigtime rally.

On the natural gas front the market is rising on the same old song I have been preaching in the past. Once we are out of shoulder season, Hot temperatures, Coal Industry put on backburner and rig counts spiraling downward will only make this market wildly bullish. In the overnight electronic session the July contract is currently trading at 2.338 which is 5 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.344 to 2.277 so far. This market is looking more and more like a breakout to the upside.


by Dan Flynn

SOURCE: Investing.com